Climate change: the basics

Climate change will shape the world you work and live in, from summer heat in the Gulf to the jobs on offer when you graduate. Understanding the core science helps you cut through noise and argue from evidence.

What the scientists agree on

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN body that assesses climate research from thousands of studies. Its 2023 Synthesis Report is the most authoritative summary available.
• The IPCC states that human activities, mainly through emissions of greenhouse gases, have 'unequivocally caused global warming'. Unequivocal means there is no reasonable scientific doubt.
• Global surface temperature in 2011 to 2020 was 1.1C above the 1850 to 1900 average, which scientists use as the 'pre-industrial' baseline.
• UNEP sums it up simply: climate change is real and human activities are the main cause.

How the greenhouse effect works

• Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane trap heat in the atmosphere. UNEP notes that their concentration is directly linked to the average temperature on Earth.
• CO2 makes up roughly two thirds of greenhouse gas emissions and comes mainly from burning fossil fuels: oil, gas and coal for electricity, transport and industry.
• Methane is far more powerful than CO2 in the short term: UNEP says its warming effect is over 80 times greater than CO2 over 20 years.
• NASA reports that CO2 from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age.

The evidence you can point to

• Temperature: NASA says the planet's surface has warmed by about 1C since the late 19th century, with most of that warming in the past 40 years.
• Records: the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed 2024 as the warmest year on record, about 1.55C above the pre-industrial level, and 2015 to 2024 as the ten warmest years recorded.
• Sea level: NASA reports global sea level rose about 20 cm over the last century, and the rate over the last two decades is nearly double that.
• Ice: Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tonnes of ice per year between 1993 and 2019, and Antarctica about 148 billion tonnes per year (NASA).
• Oceans: the ocean has absorbed about 90 per cent of the extra heat, and surface ocean acidity has risen by about 30 per cent since the Industrial Revolution (NASA).

Why 1.5C matters, and a common misunderstanding

• The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming, ideally to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
• One year above 1.5C, as in 2024, does not mean the goal has failed. The WMO explains that the target is measured over decades; it estimated long-term warming at about 1.3C in 2024.
• The IPCC says pathways that limit warming to 1.5C need rapid and deep emission cuts in all sectors this decade. In those modelled pathways, global emissions fall by a median of 43 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030.
• The IPCC also says that the choices made in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years.

What it means for the Gulf

• The IPCC reports that human-caused climate change is already affecting weather extremes in every region, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall and droughts.
• Hot, dry regions face more extreme heat, which raises demand for cooling and water, both of which use a lot of energy in the UAE.
• The UAE hosted COP28, the UN climate conference, in Dubai in 2023, and has set a target of net zero emissions by 2050.
• Net zero means cutting emissions as far as possible and balancing what is left by removing the same amount from the atmosphere. The IPCC says limiting warming requires net zero CO2 emissions.